Imagine that you've $100. And that each of your 30 million fellow citizens -- every man, woman, and child in Canada -- does as well. We'd have quite a lump under the collective mattress: $3 billion worth.
Now imagine that we directed that amount toward an initiative in keeping with creating an economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable society. Let's say...oh...building urban bicycle infrastructure. That would correlate to the ten largest Canadian cities -- Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver, Regina, Winnipeg, pick three other cities -- each receiving a cheque for $300 million. Right now.
That would make quite a difference wouldn't it? Possibly a complete revolution in the living patterns of a significant percentage of those cities' -- and Canada's! -- inhabitants.
Now toss in another $400 million and imagine that the total was directed toward an enterprise that already benefits by billions in implicit subsidies, has ceased to be a going concern; makes what people aren't buying, is rapacious in its hunger for resources and infrastructure, and is a significant contributor to the defilement of our landscapes and ill health of our populace.
No need to imagine it, read all about it. Ottawa and Ontario have just teamed up to bail out the Bankrupt Three to the tune of $3.4 billion. And because this lifeline doesn't buy viability, just time, and not much of it at that, it's a good bet this may be the first payment of an extended installment plan.
I suppose here we could all retreat to our respective corners, brandishing our best arguments on the merits of creative destruction, the devastation of mass economic dislocation, the ripple effects to our manufacturing sector, the obsolescence of an antiquated business model, the exorbitant legacy and union costs, the efficiencies of foreign based manufacturers, and the just or unjust deserts due the whole undertaking.
But let's refrain this time around. The intention isn't to debate the action itself with all its ancillary aspects and implications but to prompt one to consider just how central are autos and the auto industry to our society's self conception.
If the notion of taming the technology, i.e., curtailing cars in our cities, is perceived as an infringement of a Gawd given right to drive amok, then the possibility of the behemoth floundering of its own accord, provokes outright panic. How the hell to get to the drive-thru for cash, coffee and, mechanically separated preformed meat by-products?
We simply can't conceive of ourselves without a predominance of cars or a massive industrial and infrastructural sector devoted to them. It's an affront to our notions of prosperity and primacy; it reveals our true imperatives: nothing short of a crisis would provoke such alacrity and unity in government and that's what this is. And who can argue the reaction is not without some justification?
What a dilemma. The last time we were in the driver's seat was prior to the energy crisis in the early 70s. Since then we've traded in the Caddy for a Tiger that bears us along ever more precariously. We created the beast, hopped on for a ride, but we don't quite know how to hop off without a mauling. This though the cost of holding on keeps rising.
So we lament the need for mass transit, green initiatives, less oil dependency, livable cities, yet the reality is that none of these propositions is quite as compelling as the prospect of serving up billions in corporate pogie to outfits largely dedicated to the opposite.
Denmark is often regarded as emblematic of a green society transformed by bicycles, enlightened land use patterns and alternative energy. What's often overlooked is that it achieved its transformation through three decades of sustained policy. By that metric Toronto will qualify for world class green status in about 2040 -- great, right about the time I'm due for a pair of Depends. If lucky.
The Danes, not having the luxury of any natural resources to speak of, learned their lesson the first time around. Instead we went for plan B: we bought the SUV and for the last 35 years have cruised between the Mall, the McMansion and the drive-thru. Oops.
Which serves as a sobering ray of morning sunshine after the hydrocarbon hangover that the realization of green, bikeable, liveable cities is not a short term proposition. They don't happen overnight and they don't happen without a plan and prolonged effort. (Not necessarily a cause for despair though as this doesn't preclude significant changes in limited spheres, not least individual lifestyles.)
Perhaps I've got it wrong though. Who would've imagined a generation ago that the likes of GM would amount to a write-off? Or that crude would skyrocket to $140 per barrel? Or that the Northwest Passage would be ice free in summer?
A reality so volatile beggars the imagination. It also has a tendency of quickly deflating delusions, and as the Danes found, constraining choices. Maybe we'll suddenly awaken to the fact that persisting against environmental and economic actualities is not only lunacy, it's an impossibility. Imagine that.
The sooner the better.
Comments
Darren_S
Your numbers are short.
Sun, 12/14/2008 - 21:01About $50 Billion is spent on new cars in Canada each year. This does not include the supporting industries.
While It is an industry that needs to be displaced, $3.4 Billion is peanuts when looking for an alternative. If you want buy in from the general public you will need to find an alternative that creates that much economic activity.
kiwano
Some serious rethinking needed.
Wed, 12/17/2008 - 01:30We have this regrettable habit in our society of looking at unemployment as some sort of massive burden to be avoided. Admittedly, our society has a certain work-or-be-destroyed structure to it that reinforces this idea, but I think that we really have to look at a change like this for what is really does: It provides a labour surplus.
The question shouldn't be "how do we save these jobs?". That's utter foolishness. The question should be "what can we do with all these freed-up human resources?"
There are plenty of pretty massive policy objectives floating around (GHG emissions reduction anyone?) and things are pretty much doomed to be disrupted to all hell anyway. This is the best opportunity we have to direct our resources to those objectives, but instead we're trying to hold back the tide.
We're going to fall down no matter what we do now. Let's focus on getting back on our feet as quickly as possible.
bumblebee
Totally False
Sat, 12/20/2008 - 10:12Don't let all the 'witch-doctor' economists fool you. They'd like you all to believe that cars are a pillar of our economy and it cannot survive without them. Nothing could be further from the truth. I know because my background is in economics.
If you take a few moments and think about all the money invested in the auto indutry, and then think about what would happen if we didn't have an auto industry, you'd realize that all that money would be re-invested in other areas, thus creating a wealth effect in other corners of our economy.
But don't take my word for it. Stick around so you can see it for yourself ;)
Le garcon
Darren_S
At the dinner table.
Sat, 12/20/2008 - 16:23I do not believe that cars are the "pillar of our economy" nor do I believe that throwing money at some un-named alternative will work either. It is quite easy to say it, quite another to affect change.
Think about all of those families who have depended on the car industry for their livelihood sitting around the dinner table. There are hundreds of thousands of them and they also vote. Imagine the anxiety they have for the future. It will take quite a leap of faith for them to believe in any change.
It is nice to talk about diverting the money but where to that does not create just another moronic chapter of consumerism?
To start selling change they need to hear not only how much money will be used but also buy into an industry(ies) that will be a replacement.
Luke Siragusa
Re: At the dinner table
Sat, 12/20/2008 - 19:40You've neatly summarized why a transformation away from an automobile based economy and lifestyle and toward a sustainable, saner future proves so daunting to a considerable segment of society.
The change extends beyond jeopardizing how one immediately puts food on the table, it also compels a thorough examination of cultural and personal assumptions: what constitutes prosperity and well being and the conventional means to those ends, a proclivity for mindless consumption.
But who's "selling change"? The fact is it's happening -- always has been, always will be -- whether anyone's buying into it or not. And as far as alternatives: before buying into them one must first realize that one can't afford NOT to buy into them. That is, the present course has become unsupportable.
That we should endure until there's really no choice isn't, and shouldn't be, an inevitability. But it seems we're intent on making it so.
Darren_S
Re: At the dinner table
Sun, 12/21/2008 - 05:53The only change that is really happening is what the market can bear. Paint a car green and call it environmentally friendly.
Ask the average person to switch to sustainable food and they will think you are nuts, how could they afford the premium in the face of losing their job?
This seems to boil down to theory versus practice. There will be a lot less incentive to go from the theory to practice when the market offers attractive alternatives like electric cars. They may feel nice but are really no different than ones with combustion engines.