Us bloggers and readers have expressed some frustration that we don't have better numbers to reflect the number of cyclists that commute by bike across Toronto. We're certain that the numbers in Metro Toronto are higher than the edge of Scarborough. Well, I can now give a qualified confirmation of the anecdotal evidence. "Active transportation" is much higher in the "SOB" region (that's South of Bloor, folks).
I've gleaned information from Statscan's 2006 census of transit use and active transportation in various neighbourhoods. I take full responsibility for any shoddy analysis and arrangement.
I sampled an interesting variety of neighbourhoods (aka census tracts) such as Kensington Market, Leslieville, Regent Park, Scarborough Civic Centre, North York Civic Centre, Etobicoke Civic Centre, the east of Pearson Airport (otherwise known as the Bermuda Triangle), the neighbourhood near the Zoo/Rouge River, and my own near St. Clair/Lansdowne.
The graph is derived from Statscan data which shows the commuting by car, transit, bike, walking and other. Each bar adds up to 100% of the modes used for commuting. The bars are ranked from low density to high density. I was only able to find results where walking and biking were combined so I'm using the term "active transportation" here.
Some interesting results:
- With increasing density transit increases and car use decreases steadily. Density has less of a direct effect on walking and biking though it's clear that hardly anyone walks on the really low density areas.
- Kensington Market has the highest walking and biking of the areas sampled. But other areas nearby seem to be almost as high.
- For its relative density my St. Clair/Lansdowne neighbourhood is pathetic in terms of walking and biking to work. I might as well live up at Finch and Highway 400!
- True to expectations, the neighbourhood near the Zoo is a car-dominated zone with low transit use and really low active transportation - 1/5th Toronto's average.
- Regent Park has very high transit use. I can speculate that many of them work far away but have no car. Their active transportation is about the same as the gentrifying neighbourhood of Leslieville to the east.
- Pearson Airport is about 50% as dense as the Toronto average, whereas Regent Park is 2600% as dense!
If we assume the same ratio of 1:6 of biking to walking as the Toronto average we can guess that Toronto's bike commuting may be as high as 5% for downtown (7% for Kensington) and as low as 0.1% for the worst suburbs (Jane/Finch and the Airport). I think that's a good guess and confirms what a lot of us cyclists know already: a lot more people bike to work downtown than in the far suburbs.
Comments
Ben
Very cool
Mon, 03/10/2008 - 10:36Nice work!
Darren_S
Income
Mon, 03/10/2008 - 11:16I wonder how family income would plot against the graph.
So does this encourage the City to spend more money where there are cyclists or areas where it needs to increase active transportation?
Svend
That's a tough choice for
Mon, 03/10/2008 - 11:55That's a tough choice for planners. Create lanes where the potential is high or where the actual use is already there.
I think we can afford both.
I'd be leery of some stats like this, they are too black and white if the question doesn't allow for second or third preferences. Me, I'm a pedestrian first but cyclist close behind but the census doesn't take that into account.
However, this is an excellent look at the figures we have, thanks for the chart.
Alan Medcalf (not verified)
Great work!
Mon, 03/10/2008 - 12:42This is great work, Herb; very nicely compiled and presented.
One caution: be careful not to confuse correrlation and causation. One does not imply the other. "Density has less of a direct effect ..." is commenting on causality, when it ought to be, "Density is less correlated..."
There are numerous variables that come into play and that would need to be discussed and, where possible, isolated and analyzed, before causation becomes clear.
That caution notwithstanding, this is a great piece of work that can inform much deeper discussion.
...alan
herb
causation and correlation
Tue, 03/11/2008 - 00:52True, Alan. But I wasn't trying to be completely rigorous. And furthermore I think I wouldn't be going out on a limb if I said that density does have an effect on the level of commuting by car, transit, foot or pedal. I mean, density influences how far away it is between two points that a commuter may need to go thus favouring the car.
We can say that density is a rough way to identify certain characteristics of, for instance, suburbs: high level of detached houses, high car ownership, lots of cul-de-sacs, bad transit service, bad connections for cyclists. But that is going from experience of Toronto and things may be different elsewhere. And it isn't even completely true of Toronto. The airport neighbourhood, for example, has a really high % of apartments but still really low density and high car use.
In short, there are a number of influences, but I argue density is a strong one.
If I didn't have to copy and paste each census tract separately I could perhaps try to correlate different variables. I guess I'd have to calculate the R^2 or something like that.
Luke (not verified)
Wonderful job Herb!
Mon, 03/10/2008 - 15:24Wonderful job Herb! The situation at a glance.
Darren_S, I'd hazard the answer is that the money will go to those that make the most noise, are the best organized, or wield the most influence. ;-)
But as an academic exercise, and as it regards cyclists, I would hope that planners would reject the premise of your question as a false dichotomy. That is, not consider the dilemma piecemeal, or from a strictly intra-neighbourhood perspective.
Too much of current cycling infrastructure is already too parochial, the equivalent of North York's Yonge-Ikea subway line. A more rational approach would comprise inter-neighbourhood links and coherent networks with logical hubs and termini reflecting general commuting and travel patterns - within and without the area.
This is important because, if like the majority of cyclists you commute to one neighbourhood from another and, perhaps, shop or socialize in still another, the existence or lack of cycling amenities anywhere en route - whether in your area or not - will have a direct bearing on your cycling patterns.
Shouldn't good planning seek to extend benefits beyond the immediate vicinity?
Darren_S
Coherent networks
Mon, 03/10/2008 - 16:17Yes Luke I agree. The issue does come up though especially amongst the downtown crowd and let's face it. They (City Hall) have already indicated that cycling money will go where it is easiest to put it, so if you live in Ford's ward you are crap out of luck.
I have argued on the flip side of that believing money should be equally or in a greater proportion in the outlying neighbourhoods. Getting one cyclist who lives in the outer reaches to ride 10kms to work is the same has having 10 people from the downtown ride 1 km to work. Yes overly simplistic and it would still require a complete route.
One only needs to look a the bike map to see the issues involved. Bike lanes are put in where it is most easiest, not where it makes most sense to complete a continuous route.
Darren_S
St. Clair
Tue, 03/11/2008 - 13:13I keep coming back to this graph cause it asks new questions and provides answers to others.
I wonder how much the St. Clair numbers are skewed from the construction during the St.Clair reconfiguration.
Not sure what the Pharmacy area includes but the numbers (not Herbs) seem off. I live on Pharmacy proper and we have a hard time holding onto to our bus. The TTC is always telling us that ridership is either stagnate or declining.
Overall the transit numbers seem pretty healthy, even in areas where you would surmise that access was poor, like the zoo or airport.
There is also no way to tell which way they are going when they leave their home. Are they inbound to the City or going further outbound.
Tom Trottier
Data Source?
Tue, 03/11/2008 - 14:52Where did you get the data? Would be interesting to look at other areas of the Country, eg, Ottawa.
-tOM
hamish (not verified)
now contrast where the city spends cycling money
Wed, 03/12/2008 - 12:47Thanks for the details - belayed response/awareness of the good work - but it's not new that most cyclists are in the older core, though maybe not such detailed coverage. The next step may be to look at what the City is spending, and where - my contention is that there's too much of an imbalance between urban and more suburban spending - and the putting of costly paths in parks doesn't make it better because that's not truly making cycling for commuters better. Yes, we do need to spend big bucks at times for big projects but the contrast between the simple and cheap project of a bike lane on Bloor beside the subway for c. $200,000 for 8kms contrasts nicely with a lot of other things, including, regrettably, the rail trail at $1.3M/km, though I'm not sure it's going to do a lot of good.
darren
suburban spending?
Wed, 03/12/2008 - 20:40The city spends money on cycling in the suburbs? Nowhere I ever see. Unless you count little blue signs with a number on them, and even those are scarce.
I don't think this chart has to lead to this kind of contest though. As you say, the cost of adding bicycle infrastructure is relatively cheap. The issue is not one of a lack of funds, but a lack of political will.
I'm still hopeful that 2008 could be the first year we see this start to change.
-dj
Toronto realtor (not verified)
Good job, you have presented
Tue, 03/18/2008 - 08:20Good job, you have presented all the facts really clearly.
I just want to share my experience from Finland wit you. I've been to Helsinki during last winter and I would never say before, how could be bikes common in the cite centre. Strong winter is not an excuse for us beacuse in Helsinki they have at least same cold. One reason could be very expensive public transportation but public transport in Toronto is quite expensive too. I would really appreciate people to start using their bikes in Toronto more often in all the neighbourhoods in Toronto.
herb
statscan
Mon, 06/23/2008 - 10:17The source is from Statistic Canada's last census in 2006. I had to get access through the University of Toronto for access this granular because it gets very expensive to buy it as a data set (despite Canadians already paying for it through taxes the government puts a heavy toll on access to information).
I don't think I'm even allowed to publish it like this.
Here is a table of modal split for transportation for the entire city of Toronto. It's free.